| DOW | 8378.65 | | -312.30 | -3.59% | | NASDAQ | 1552.03 | | -51.88 | -3.23% | S&P | 876.77 | | -31.34 | -3.45% | | | | | | Dennis Kneale, CNBC Media & Technology Editor A COMEBACK, BUT WHEN?
Are we there yet? For the past year Wall Streeters have said that before stocks can rebound, we need to see maximum pessimism and necessary pain. Seems like we've had an overabundance of both. And still, stocks keep falling, tacitly taunting anyone who dared hold out hope.
But we can be sure of a few things. First: The bottom is a lot closer than it was even just a few months ago. Second: This bear plunge, down 40% from the Dow high of 14,165 last October, exceeds the 31% average decline from the top in the previous dozen bear markets since World War II. Third: When stocks DO start to rebound, they make up fully one-third of what they lost in just the first 40 days. And fourth: From the bottom, stocks in the previous 12 bear markets rose an average of 10% one month later and were up 17% three months out, up 21% six months out, up 28% 12 months out and up almost 40% two years from the nadir.
So investors should consider holding on to what they have--and placing some new bets now. No one knows when the bottom really will arrive----but stocks simply won't stay down here forever; and when they do start a comeback, new waves of wealth creation will be unleashed. Hold fast and persevere.
| | | The Week Ahead A look ahead to next week's business and financial stories, including a jobs report and Fed meeting, with CNBC's Bill Griffeth...play video | | | | What the Pros Say: Rates Need to Come Down Global markets tumbled severely on Friday as fears of a global economic slowdown reached a crescendo. Sterling plunged to new lows against the dollar, in the region of $1.55, after data revealed that Britain's economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter. In the midst of recession worries, CNBC's experts call for further rate cuts...read more | | | | Nervous Investors Awaiting Two Big Events Next Week Next week is expected to mark the beginning of the US economy's entry into a recession and the end of the Federal Reserve's conventional monetary policy to remedy the situation. On Wednesday, the Fed's FOMC is widely expected to cut the key federal funds rate another half point, to one percent, in what what many assume will be the end of its aggressive easing campaign...read more | | | | 2.Saudi Oil Minister On Production OPEC ministers decide to cut production by 1.5M barrels per day. Insight on the decision with Saudi Oil minister Al-Naimi and CNBC's Melissa Francis. | | | | 3.Crude Prices Tumble A look at markets and energy futures as they fall sharply, with David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors investment strategist. | | | | 4.Gross' View On the Markets Debating whether the markets will help curb fear today, with Bill Gross, Pimco founder & co-CIO and CNBC's Erin Burnett. | | | | 5. Today the Turning Point? Insight on whether today's market fall might be a turning point, with Peter Boockvar, Miller Tabak and Ned Riley, Riley Asset Management. | | | | CNBC.com BLOG OF THE DAY | | | | (c) 2008 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved | | |
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