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Thursday, October 25, 2012

CNBC.com Evening Brief: Special Currency Trading Edition

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Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012   
  Evening Brief
Special Money In Motion Currency Trading Edition
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The Most Important Jobs Report Yet
It is the most important jobs report in four years. Not because the economy has neared some inflection point, but rather because of the impact it is likely to have on the next election, and on the future policies of the Federal Reserve. Given that Romney is probably the more hawkish candidate, a Romney Fed chairman could have a very different set of policies than Ben Bernanke. This could mean everything for the currency markets. So what can we expect next Friday – and what's the smart way to trade it? We'll find out.

Watch Out Yen Buyers
If you own yen – watch out! The dollar/yen has been on a tear over the past two weeks, and has recently broken above 80 for the first time in four months. This ahead of widespread expectations that the Bank of Japan will announce further easing next week. But are traders setting themselves up for a major disappointment if the BOJ fails to do as much as some expect? We'll have that story, and our pros will give you the best way to trade the event.

China PMI
Don't look now, but in the midst of a great deal of bearishness, China's economy is showing some signs of turning around. Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 for this month, and even though it's below the 50-level that divides expansion from contraction, it looks a lot better than the 47.9 number we saw in September. And this is as the yuan is at its highest level since the modern system began in 1994. With China set for a once-in-a-decade leadership change next month, will the incoming administration look to ease the yuan to get growth back on track? We'll have that discussion, and your trade on Chinese data.

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